JPMorgan cuts Pop Mart target to HK$100 after third-quarter revenue drops nearly 50%

Pop Mart’s earnings reset continued in the third quarter of 2026, with revenue falling 45% to 50% year over year, according to a JPMorgan note dated Oct. 28. The decline was steeper than the bank’s earlier forecast for a 37% drop, with overseas markets showing sharper weakness than China. JPMorgan lowered its target price on the company to HK$100 from HK$110, kept its Underweight rating, and cut its 2026 adjusted net profit forecast to RMB 7.871 billion from RMB 9.341 billion, a reduction of about 16%. The bank now expects fourth-quarter revenue to reach about RMB 6.56 billion, down roughly 41% from a year earlier and up only about 1% from the third quarter. It also projects second-half adjusted net margin at about 21.3%, versus 29.7% in the first half, as slower sales leave store-related costs weighing more heavily on profitability. Management, as cited in the note, was more constructive on fourth-quarter trends, especially in China, though Europe remains uncertain. Inventory has started to improve, with total stock peaking around May and declining from August. Pop Mart is also centralizing procurement and increasing cross-region inventory transfers. Even so, investors are still watching whether flagship stores, new IPs, and member operations can offset the gap left by fading demand after the Labubu boom.